| National Weather Service Forecast for:
Omro, WI Issued by: National Weather Service Green Bay, WI |
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| Updated: Sun, 20-Jan-2019 6:39am CST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Omro | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Today |
Sunny. High near 9, with temperatures falling to around 5 in the afternoon. Wind chill values as low as -14. North wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
| Tonight |
Mostly clear, with a low around -3. North wind 1 to 6 mph. |
| M.L. King Jr. Day |
Mostly sunny. High near 19, with temperatures falling to around 14 in the afternoon. East southeast wind 1 to 10 mph. |
| Monday Night |
A slight chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. South southeast wind around 12 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
| Tuesday |
Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Southeast wind 3 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. |
| Tuesday Night |
Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. |
| Wednesday |
Mostly sunny, with a high near 23. |
| Wednesday Night |
Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. |
| Thursday |
A slight chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. |
| Thursday Night |
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6. |
| Friday |
Partly sunny, with a high near 2. |
| Friday Night |
A slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -10. |
| Saturday |
A slight chance of snow showers before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 9. |
| Saturday Night |
Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Omro, WI.
000 FXUS63 KGRB 201012 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 412 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 409 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019 Rather cold today and tonight, then moderating temperatures with a round of "shovelable" snow during the first half of the upcoming work week. The very energetic split flow across North America will gradually consolidate as a full-latitude ridge slowly evolves near the West Coast. As the ridge builds, a large, deep trough will strengthen from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes region. A persistent flow of cold air from high latitudes into the northern CONUS will result, causing temperatures across the forecast area to end their rollercoaster ride and settle at substantially below normal levels. Medium range models are still trying to hone in on the details of the pattern, but the coldest conditions may occur beyond the end of the forecast period. There will be numerous opportunities for precipitation as a strong baroclinic zone remains across the area. The most significant will probably be as a southern stream cyclone crosses the region during the early to middle part of the upcoming work week. Despite the cold, precipitation amounts will probably end up AOA normal for the period. && .SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday Issued at 409 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019 Dealing with the ongoing wind chill headline is messy. Temperatures were cold, but winds have gone calm across much of the advisory area. Decided to continue the advisory since wind chills will probably dip to -20 to -25 for a time after sun-up when winds pick up a bit. A similar conundrum may occur with wind chills again tonight. Will leave it for the day shift to make a final decision on headlines after we can hopefully hone in on exact temperatures and winds speeds a little better. The other main short-term forecast problem is the lake-effect potential--especially off Lake Michigan. A strong land breeze circulation has carried the primary lake band away from the Wisconsin shoreline, though some clouds and flurries could still brush lakeshore areas at times. Northern Door County will be most susceptible to that as bands off Lake Superior will precondition the air flowing across northern Lake Michigan. The high-res models also suggest the possibility of meso-lows forming within the primary lake band later today into tonight as the large scale flow continues to weaken. Once that occurs, movement of the band can become erratic, and felt it was prudent to keep at least a mention of snow showers lakeside. The large scale flow veering south will probably drive the lake band back to the Wisconsin shore on Monday. The Door Peninsula is again the most likely area to be affected. Some of the models show the band dissipating by that point, but given the favorable conditions for maintenance of the band today into tonight, is seems doubtful it will go away that quickly. Went a little below a blend of top performing guidance products for highs today and Monday, as guidance has been a little too warm lately. Lowered mins for tonight in most areas given the cold air mass across the area and the expectation of light winds. Clouds could mess things up of course, but it seems likely we`ll have at least a cloud-free period everywhere except possibly near Lake Michigan. .LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday Issued at 409 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019 Models remain consistent with the amplified mean flow to consist of an eastern Pacific/West Coast upper ridge, a deep/broad upper trough over east-central NOAM and a western Atlantic upper ridge. This pattern will bring a northwest flow into WI with a couple of arctic intrusions (early week and late week). There is one main system of interest Monday night through Tuesday night that appears to bring accumulating snow and possible headlines to northeast WI. Other than Tuesday, temperatures are expected to be below to well-below normal. Attention is focused on a developing system over the central Plains with an inverted surface trough extended north-northeast into the Upper MS Valley Monday night. A tightening pressure gradient between the low pressure over KS and high pressure over the eastern CONUS will crank up a southerly low-level jet (up to 60 knots) which will quickly transport gulf moisture northward. The increasing moisture transport, combined with WAA, should bring an increasing chance for light snow across most of the forecast area. Snow potential by daybreak could range from a dusting south, to as much as 3 inches north of Hwy 8. Min temperatures Monday night to be around 10 above zero north, middle to upper teens east-central WI. The surface low is forecast to track northeast and reach southeast IA by 00Z Wednesday, as the inverted surface trough to move east across western/central WI. Accompanying these surface features will be a trailing shortwave trough that adds mid-level Q-G forcing. Based on the location of best lift and forcing, the axis of higher snow amounts would shift toward central/east-central WI on Tuesday, especially during the afternoon hours where 2-3 inches of snow is possible. Max temperatures to range from around 20 degrees north-central WI, to the middle to upper 20s eastern WI. The overall trend of the models have slowed this system down a bit, similar to what the ECMWF showed last night. The surface low moves northeast through northeast IL Tuesday evening and eventually reaches Lake Huron late Tuesday night. This track favors parts of central and most of east-central WI in the deformation zone as the models indicate moderate mid-level frontogenesis. Potential for another 1 to 3 inches of accumulation with lesser amounts farther north and west during the evening. If these trends do not change, a winter weather headline would become necessary over parts of the forecast area. The snows should then begin to taper off overnight with min temperatures 5 to 10 above zero north-central, 15 to 20 degree range east-central WI. There could be a brief window late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for lake effect snow showers over Vilas County as northwest winds and modest cold air moves over western Lake Superior. However, a surface ridge axis is forecast to move into the western Great Lakes on Wednesday bringing drier air and backing winds to the area, thereby ending the lake effect threat. The remainder of northeast WI should see a mix of sun and clouds with max temperatures mainly in the upper teens to lower 20s. A clipper system is progged to move southeast from Lake Winnipeg to Lake Superior Wednesday night, then turn east-southeast toward northeast Lower MI/southeast Ontario on Thursday. A strong cold front will accompany the clipper, as well as a trailing mid-level shortwave trough. While stronger forcing to remain along/north of the surface low track, expect to see at least a small chance of light snow with the passage of the cold front on Thursday. Max temperatures to be in the middle to upper teens north-central, lower 20s elsewhere. Arctic air to overspread the region Thursday night with 8H temperatures tanking into the -26 to -30C range. Northwest winds and these bitterly cold temperatures should lead to lake effect snow showers across north-central WI Thursday night into Friday morning before the approach of high pressure backs the winds making trajectories unfavorable. The main story here will be the temperatures with mins Thursday night from 10 to 15 below zero over central WI, to around zero near Lake MI. Max temperatures for Friday are expected to struggle to reach zero over central WI, zero to 5 above for eastern WI. Add in a northwest wind of 10 to 15 mph and wind chills Friday morning could dip into the -20 to -30 degree range. Another snow chance arrives late Friday night into Saturday as another mid-level shortwave trough drops southeast within the broad upper trough over the eastern half of the CONUS. There could be a surface reflection as well to help generate light snow over the forecast area. A wind shift to the west-southwest should allow temperatures to `warm` a bit with readings on Saturday from 5 to 10 above zero central WI, 10 to 15 above eastern WI. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 409 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019 MVFR conditions with lake-effect clouds should be confined primarily to the far north and near Lake Michigan. Anticipate primarily VFR conditions at all the TAF sites except MTW. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for WIZ005- 010>012-018-019. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....Skowronski LONG TERM......Kallas AVIATION.......Skowronski